I am a 5th year PhD student at the University of Helsinki and the Helsinki Graduate School of Economics, under the supervision of Otto Toivanen and Torsten Santavirta. I work on industrial organization and health economics. Most of my current research is focused on pharmaceutical markets: I study entry, mergers and acquisitions as well as firm, patient and physician behaviour in these markets.
I will be on the 2025/2026 academic job market.
Job market paper
History Dependence and Firm Incentives in Free Contraception Programs with E. Jussila, draft available upon request
We study pharmaceutical wholesalers’ invest-and-harvest strategies in the birth control pill market in Finland. Contraceptives are provided free of charge at healthcare providers for women under a certain age limit, but once ineligible, young women wishing to continue using the same method and product must purchase the product at a retail pharmacy and pay for it entirely out of pocket. We observe that large share of the individuals continue using the exact product they used in the program even when cheaper substitutes exist and switching is virtually costless. Pharmaceutical firms use this history dependence to lock in consumers and offer their products at significant price reductions to be handed out in the free programs. They exhibit a pattern of foregoing profits in the first stage to reap the benefits of the path-dependent consumer in the unregulated retail pharmacy market later on. Using a novel survey data set on free program practices as well as administrative prescription and purchase data from Finland, we first confirm the presence of history dependence in drug use behavior with reduced form methods and a structural demand model incorporating history dependence. We then estimate the supply structurally and produce counterfactuals including turning off history dependence, reorganizing provision of free contraceptives and varying reimbursement.
Publications
The Indirect Effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 Vaccination on Healthcare Workers’ Unvaccinated Household Members In Nature Communications (2022) 13:1162 with J. Salo, M. Kortelainen, T. Leino, T. Saxell, M. Siikanen & L. Sääksvuori, LINK
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Mass vaccination is effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections among vaccinated individuals. However, it remains unclear how effectively COVID-19 vaccines prevent people from spreading the virus to their close contacts. Using nationwide administrative datasets on SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccination records, demographics, and unique household IDs, we conducted an observational cohort study to estimate the direct and indirect effectiveness of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines in reducing infections among vaccinated healthcare workers and their unvaccinated household members. Our estimates for adults imply indirect effectiveness of 39.1% (95% CI: −7.1% to 65.3%) two weeks and 39.0% (95% CI: 18.9% to 54.0%) eight weeks after the second dose. We find that the indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines within households is smaller for unvaccinated children than for adults and statistically insignificant. Here, we show that mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections not only among vaccinated individuals but also among unvaccinated adult household members in a real-world setting.Working papers
Price and Non-price Effects of Cross-market Mergers in Regulated Markets with M. Siikanen, draft available upon request
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We study how cross-market mergers affect price and non-price outcomes in two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden, that have differing regulatory environments. Cross-market mergers entail the merging of two firms that compete in different active ingredient markets, that are used to treat the same illnesses. The customers can therefore be seen as common, even though the markets are separate. We use product-level price and quantity data from the two countries and analyze the effects of the mergers on expenditure, prices, sales and assortment, analyzing the differences in net, target firm and rival firm effects using differences-in-differences. We find that in the stricter regulatory environment of Sweden expenditure and prices decrease significantly, whereas sales stay relatively constant. The increase stems from an increasing number of products available. In Finland, where the regulation is laxer, prices increase and the assortment shrinks. Expenditure decreases non-significantly, as do sales. The paper offers novel insights into the joint effects of market regulation and mergers, a topic previously understudied.Long-term Effects of Maternity Ward Closures on Children with M. Kortelainen, draft available upon request
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It is widely known that early-life health interventions can affect long-term outcomes later in life. This paper studies how the closures of maternity wards affect short-term health outcomes as well as educational and labour market outcomes of children in their adulthood using a quasi-experimental research design and nationwide administrative data sets from Finland. Using difference-in-differences approach that allows for heterogeneous treatment effects in a staggered design, we find significant improvements in perinatal child health outcomes in the short run. In the long run, we find significant positive effects of closures on upper secondary educational attainment as well as employment and earnings. The paper contributes to a previously understudied topic on the effect of specialized healthcare unit closures on short-term health outcomes and long-term educational and labour market outcomes of children in the modern context.Work in progress
Physician Prescribing Behaviour in Markets with Dispersed Prices
Adoption and Effects of Free Contraception Programs with E. Jussila, M. Kortelainen, S. Metsälampi & M. Viertola
Entry in the Nordic Pharmaceutical Markets with J. Markkanen, M. Kortelainen, M. Siikanen & O. Toivanen
Policy work
Additional Public Procurement in Health Services: Lessons from Finnish Physiotherapy Markets In Journal of the Finnish Economic Association (2024) Vol. 5 No. 1 with V. Pitkänen, LINK
Municipalities’ Operations Models and Financing Responsibility in Preventing and Reducing the Need for Social Assistance In Publications of the Government´s analysis, assessment and research activities 2021:23 (available in Finnish) with A. Rissanen, T. Tupala, M. Valtakari, M. Yli-Koski, R. Aro & R-L Leskelä, LINK