I am a 5th year PhD student at the University of Helsinki and the Helsinki Graduate School of Economics, under the supervision of Otto Toivanen. I work on industrial organization and health economics. Most of my current research is focused on pharmaceutical markets: I study entry, mergers and acquisitions as well as firm, patient and physician behaviour in these markets.
I am on the 2025/2026 job market.
Job market paper
History Dependence and Firm Incentives in Free Contraception Programs with E. Jussila, LINK
We study pharmaceutical wholesalers’ invest-and-harvest strategies in Finland’s birth control pill market. Contraceptives are provided for free at healthcare providers for women under a certain age limit, but after aging out of eligibility, they must pay for the pills entirely out-of-pocket at retail pharmacies. Using individual-level prescription and purchase data, we estimate a structural model to conduct counterfactual analyses. The institutional setting allows for precise identification, separating true history dependence from unobserved heterogeneity. We find strong persistence in demand: individuals continue using the same product from the program, even when cheaper substitutes exist and switching without monetary cost is easily accessible. Firms exploit this history dependence, forgoing early-stage profits to capture path-dependent consumers later in the unregulated retail pharmacy market. In the first counterfactual, where history dependence is removed, prices decrease on average 13 % and firm profits decrease 8 % on average. The estimated investment costs of 0.12 M€ contrasts with the harvesting benefits, for which the estimated upper bound is 0.57 M€. To understand the monetary costs and benefits of the programs for individuals, in the second counterfactual we abolish the hospital pharmacy sector and shift all demand to the retail pharmacy. Individuals end up paying approximately 240 % more for their contraception over their birth control pill use spells.
Publications
The Indirect Effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 Vaccination on Healthcare Workers’ Unvaccinated Household Members In Nature Communications (2022) 13:1162 with J. Salo, M. Kortelainen, T. Leino, T. Saxell, M. Siikanen & L. Sääksvuori, LINK
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Mass vaccination is effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections among vaccinated individuals. However, it remains unclear how effectively COVID-19 vaccines prevent people from spreading the virus to their close contacts. Using nationwide administrative datasets on SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccination records, demographics, and unique household IDs, we conducted an observational cohort study to estimate the direct and indirect effectiveness of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines in reducing infections among vaccinated healthcare workers and their unvaccinated household members. Our estimates for adults imply indirect effectiveness of 39.1% (95% CI: −7.1% to 65.3%) two weeks and 39.0% (95% CI: 18.9% to 54.0%) eight weeks after the second dose. We find that the indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines within households is smaller for unvaccinated children than for adults and statistically insignificant. Here, we show that mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections not only among vaccinated individuals but also among unvaccinated adult household members in a real-world setting.Working papers
Price and Non-price Effects of Cross-market Mergers in Regulated Markets with M. Siikanen, LINK
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We study how cross-market mergers affect price and non-price outcomes in the pharmaceutical markets of two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden, that have differing regulatory environments. Cross-market mergers entail the merging of two firms that compete in different active ingredient markets, that are used to treat the same illnesses. The customers can therefore be seen as common, even though the markets are separate. We use product-level price and quantity data from the two countries and analyze the effects of the mergers on expenditure, prices, sales and assortment, analyzing the differences in net, target firm and rival firm effects using differences-in-differences. In both countries, we find no economically significant adverse effects of the studied mergers on pharmaceutical short term expenditure or prices. Second, we find no adverse effects on the pharmaceutical assortment or on market size. Third, we find merger effects vary markedly between target firms and rival firms, underscoring the importance of research designs in which control units are not directly exposed to the merger. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of defining the merger event correctly in time: the use of the announcement or deal date as the event may generate differing results. The paper offers novel insights into the joint effects of market regulation and mergers, a topic previously understudied in drug markets.Long-term Effects of Maternity Ward Closures on Children with M. Kortelainen, LINK
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It is widely known that early-life health interventions can affect long-term outcomes later in life. This paper studies how the closures of maternity wards affect short-term health outcomes as well as educational and labour market outcomes of children in their adulthood using a quasi-experimental research design and nationwide administrative data sets from Finland. Using difference-in-differences approach that allows for heterogeneous treatment effects in a staggered design, we find significant improvements in perinatal child health outcomes in the short run. In the long run, we find significant positive effects of closures on upper secondary educational attainment as well as employment and earnings. The paper contributes to a previously understudied topic on the effect of specialized healthcare unit closures on short-term health outcomes and long-term educational and labour market outcomes of children in the modern context.Work in progress
Physician Prescribing Behaviour in Markets with Dispersed Prices
Entry in the Nordic Pharmaceutical Markets with J. Markkanen, M. Siikanen & O. Toivanen
Adoption and Effects of Free Contraception Programs with E. Jussila, M. Kortelainen, S. Metsälampi & M. Viertola, Pre-analysis plan
Policy work
Additional Public Procurement in Health Services: Lessons from Finnish Physiotherapy Markets In Journal of the Finnish Economic Association (2024) Vol. 5 No. 1 with V. Pitkänen, LINK
Municipalities’ Operations Models and Financing Responsibility in Preventing and Reducing the Need for Social Assistance In Publications of the Government´s analysis, assessment and research activities 2021:23 (available in Finnish) with A. Rissanen, T. Tupala, M. Valtakari, M. Yli-Koski, R. Aro & R-L Leskelä, LINK